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Software in Deal Valuation

Software risk in the quality of earnings analysis

Under licensing understates software cost and flatters margin. A quality of earnings review that skips the software dimension reports an earnings base the buyer cannot rely on, and pays a multiple on it.

Software risk in the quality of earnings analysis is where licensing exposure stops being a footnote and starts moving the number the deal is priced on. A quality of earnings review, often shortened to a QofE, tests whether reported profit is real, recurring, and sustainable. Software licensing touches all three. Understated licence and maintenance costs flatter margin, a looming true up threatens future profit, and a one off settlement distorts a single period. A QofE that ignores the software dimension reports an earnings base that the buyer cannot actually rely on.

Software risk in the quality of earnings analysis, in context

The purpose of a QofE is to establish a normalised, sustainable earnings figure, because that figure usually drives the valuation through a multiple. Anything that makes reported earnings look better than the sustainable reality is a quality issue. In the software dimension, the most common quality issue is a licensing cost base that is too low because the target is under licensed. The target appears to spend less on software than a compliant peer, so its margin looks stronger, but that margin is borrowed from a future true up that has not yet arrived. Correcting for it lowers normalised earnings and, through the multiple, the price.

This is why the software exposure has to be examined specifically rather than assumed to be inside the general financial review. A standard QofE team will test the recorded costs, but it is not equipped to compare deployment against entitlement and detect that the recorded software cost is artificially low. That gap is exactly where inherited exposure hides, and it is the reason a quantified software view, set out in quantifying cost to cure for the deal model, belongs alongside the QofE.

How software risk reaches the quality of earningsFlow diagram showing under licensing leading to understated software cost, leading to flattered margin, leading to an overstated earnings base unless the QofE adjusts for it.How software risk reaches the quality of earningsUnder licensing in the estateUnderstated software costFlattered reported marginOverstated earnings baseQofE adjustmentrestores sustainable earnings
Under licensing understates software cost and flatters margin. Without a QofE adjustment, the buyer pays a multiple on earnings that are not sustainable.

The adjustments software risk drives

Software risk produces several distinct adjustments in a QofE, and they should be kept separate because they affect the model differently. A recurring under spend on licences and maintenance is a sustainable cost adjustment that reduces normalised EBITDA period after period, and it is the one that moves the price most through the multiple. A one off settlement already incurred is a non recurring item that should be added back to normalised earnings but recognised as a cash cost. A pending true up that has not yet crystallised is a contingent liability that belongs in the net debt or completion mechanism rather than in earnings. Confusing these three is a common and expensive error.

The relationship between the QofE adjustment and the broader EBITDA treatment is set out in software licensing and EBITDA adjustments, and the way the resulting risk feeds the headline valuation is covered in how software risk affects deal valuation. The point of separating the items is to ensure each one lands in the right place in the model, so the buyer neither double counts nor misses an exposure.

Software items in the quality of earnings analysis
ItemQofE treatmentEffect on the model
Recurring under spend on licencesReduce normalised EBITDALowers price through the multiple
One off settlement already paidAdd back as non recurringRecognised as a cash cost
Pending true up not crystallisedContingent liabilityNet debt or completion item
Maintenance underfundedNormalise to compliant levelLowers sustainable margin
Renewal repricing at change of controlForward cost adjustmentAffects forecast not history

Getting the software view into the QofE early

Timing matters. The software analysis has to reach the QofE team before the normalised earnings figure is locked, because once the multiple is applied to a number, unwinding it in negotiation is hard. A buyer who commissions the software view late finds the exposure surfacing after the valuation has been set, which forces a price renegotiation from a weaker position. Bringing the deployment and entitlement analysis in early lets the adjustment flow into the normalised figure cleanly, so the price reflects sustainable earnings from the outset.

The cost of getting this wrong is well illustrated by public cases. In reported disputes, SAP pursued AB InBev for a reported 600 million dollars and Diageo for a reported 60 million over disputed and inherited licensing, as of June 2026. An earnings base that quietly assumed a compliant cost structure, while the target was materially under licensed, would have carried a recurring overstatement large enough to distort the valuation. The QofE is the right place to catch it, provided the software dimension is examined and not assumed. This page is commercial advisory on the earnings analysis, not accounting or legal advice; confirm treatment with your own advisers.

How the adjustment moves the price

The reason a software adjustment in the QofE matters so much is the leverage of the multiple. If a target is valued at, say, ten times normalised EBITDA, then a recurring software under spend of one million in a year reduces the value by ten million, not one. That leverage is what turns a seemingly modest annual licensing gap into a material change in the price. A buyer who treats the under spend as a one off cost, rather than a recurring adjustment to sustainable earnings, will undercount its effect on value by the whole multiple. The discipline is to ask, for each software item, whether it recurs, and to put the recurring ones into normalised EBITDA where the multiple applies.

This also shapes the negotiation. A seller will resist a recurring adjustment precisely because of the multiple, and will argue that the software cost is one off or already reflected. The buyer counter is the deployment and entitlement evidence showing that the estate is structurally under licensed and that bringing it to compliance is a permanent cost. With that evidence, the adjustment holds; without it, the seller frames the issue away and the buyer pays a multiple on earnings that cannot be sustained once the licensing position is corrected after close.

Key takeaways

  • Software risk in the quality of earnings analysis moves the normalised earnings figure the deal is priced on.
  • Under licensing understates software cost and flatters margin, borrowing profit from a future true up.
  • Recurring under spend, one off settlements, and pending true ups each need a different treatment in the model.
  • A recurring adjustment moves value by the whole multiple, so the recurring or one off question is decisive.
  • The software view must reach the QofE before normalised earnings are locked, or the price is set on a flawed base.

Recommendations for buyers

  1. Examine software specifically. Do not assume the general QofE catches under licensing; compare deployment against entitlement.
  2. Separate the items. Treat recurring under spend, settlements, and pending true ups distinctly so nothing is double counted or missed.
  3. Adjust normalised EBITDA. Reduce sustainable earnings for the recurring cost so the multiple applies to a real number.
  4. Hold the recurring adjustment. Use the deployment evidence to show the under spend is structural, not a one off.
  5. Bring it in early. Get the software analysis to the QofE team before the earnings figure and the price are locked.

Software risk in the quality of earnings analysis sits within software in deal valuation, alongside EBITDA adjustments and the valuation impact. The deployment and entitlement analysis that feeds the QofE comes from software spend diligence. Engage your own counsel and accounting advisers for interpretation.

Frequently asked questions

How does software risk affect quality of earnings?
Under licensing understates the target software cost, which flatters reported margin and overstates sustainable earnings. Because the valuation usually applies a multiple to normalised earnings, an unadjusted software cost base inflates the price.
Why does a standard QofE miss software risk?
A general QofE tests recorded costs but is not equipped to compare deployment against entitlement and detect that recorded software cost is artificially low. That comparison requires a specific software analysis.
How should a one off licensing settlement be treated?
As a non recurring item added back to normalised earnings, but recognised as a real cash cost. It should not be left in the sustainable earnings figure, since it does not recur.
Where does a pending true up belong?
A true up that has not yet crystallised is a contingent liability that belongs in the net debt or completion mechanism, not in normalised earnings. Treating it as an earnings item would double count or distort the figure.
Why does a recurring adjustment matter so much?
Because the valuation applies a multiple to normalised earnings. A recurring software under spend reduces value by the whole multiple, so classifying it as recurring rather than one off is decisive for the price.
When should the software analysis reach the QofE?
Before normalised earnings are locked. Once a multiple is applied to a figure, unwinding it in negotiation is hard, so the software adjustment must flow into the earnings base early.

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